(Snippets from the frontline)
COVID-19: Mother Nature skewing statistics
Some states have decided upon “re-opening” allowing the return of citizens to past freedoms. Politicians have accepted the cries of constituents despite increasing statistics of coronavirus cases and deaths.
As a physician, statistics allows me to decide whether a patient is a candidate for surgery. For example, an ENT specialist recommends a diabetic patient with sinus problems undergo a procedure to eradicate an infection.
I collect “pre-op” information, then decide the “risks and complications” to assure successful surgery. But there are unforeseen variables (poor insulin compliance, persistent smoking, morbid obesity, etc.) that play a role and are more difficult to anticipate.
Bringing us back to “re-opening”, one unforeseen variable is Mother Nature, and the effect of increasing temperatures on the virus. Most types of coronavirus are negatively impacted by warmer environments. We do not know yet if this variable is true with COVID-19.
For the next few months, the number of cases and deaths might statistically decrease. If this occurs, joyful politicians might claim success from “re-opening”, but could lead to overconfidence and a false sense of security in the Fall.
Be aware, the warmth of Mother Nature can skew future statistics.
Gene Uzawa Dorio, M.D.
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